One of my intuition colleagues, Stephan A. Schwartz, Senior Samueli Fellow for Brain, Mind and Healing, recently posted these interesting facts concerning politics on our intuition listserve. He says:
I came across a story yesterday and think it may introduce some actual information without polemics. It comes from an article by Yagil Hertzberg in the San Francisco Chronicle.
Comparing the track records of the two major parties reveals that their programs fall neatly (with one exception) into two categories - Economy and Family Values. In my analysis, I compared all administrations going back to 1960 and all states based on how they voted in the presidential elections since 1980.
To overcome bias, I have used symbols (A, B, C and D) to represent the two major parties under the two categories. All state-related numbers (including those for the District of Columbia) are per person.
Economy
Jobs: Since 1960, each of the A Party administrations has delivered higher rates of jobs creation than any of the B Party administrations.
Deficit: Since 1960, the deficit each of the A Party administrations has passed to its successor was lower than the one it inherited, while each of the B Party administrations has increased the deficit. The average yearly deficit under the B Party administrations was 277 percent higher than the average deficit under the A Party.
Productivity: The gross state product of the 20 states that voted for the A Party candidate at least 5 times out of the last 8 elections (let's call them the A states) is 15 percent higher than the other states (the B states).
Household income: The median household income in the A states is 16 percent higher than in the B states.
Poverty: The percentage of persons below the poverty level in the A
states is 21 percent lower than in the B states.
Health insurance: The percentage of people without health insurance in
the A states is 25 percent lower than in the B states.
Advantage: Party A
Family values
Divorce: The divorce rate of the 20 states who voted for the C Party candidate at least 5 times out of the of last 8 elections (let's call them the C states) is 19 percent lower than the other states (the D states).
Birth to teenagers: The teenage birth rate in the C states is 38 percent lower than in the D states.
Birth to unmarried women: The unmarried women birth rate in the C states is 7 percent lower than in the D states.
Infant mortality: Children born in C states are 24 percent less likely to die before their first birthday than children in D states.
Murder: The murder rate in the C states is 17 percent lower than in the D states.
Rape: The forcible rape rate in the C states is 20 percent lower than in the D states.
Aggravated assault: The aggravated assault rate in the C states is 18 percent lower than in the D states.
Robbery: The robbery rate in the C states is 10 percent higher than in the D states (This is the one exception).
High school dropouts: The dropout rate in the C states is 16 percent lower than in the D states.
College: The college graduation rate in the C states is 16 percent higher than in the D states.
Advantage: Party C
I asked each of my friends to pick the category he or she considers more crucial, and then I showed them the key to the symbols. This is the key to the identity of the two political parties analyzed by Yagil Herzberg:
A - The Democratic Party
B - The Republican Party
C - The Democratic Party
D - The Republican Party
To overcome bias, I have used symbols (A, B, C and D) to represent the two major parties under the two categories. All state-related numbers (including those for the District of Columbia) are per person.
Economy
Jobs: Since 1960, each of the A Party administrations has delivered higher rates of jobs creation than any of the B Party administrations.
Deficit: Since 1960, the deficit each of the A Party administrations has passed to its successor was lower than the one it inherited, while each of the B Party administrations has increased the deficit. The average yearly deficit under the B Party administrations was 277 percent higher than the average deficit under the A Party.
Productivity: The gross state product of the 20 states that voted for the A Party candidate at least 5 times out of the last 8 elections (let's call them the A states) is 15 percent higher than the other states (the B states).
Household income: The median household income in the A states is 16 percent higher than in the B states.
Poverty: The percentage of persons below the poverty level in the A
states is 21 percent lower than in the B states.
Health insurance: The percentage of people without health insurance in
the A states is 25 percent lower than in the B states.
Advantage: Party A
Family values
Divorce: The divorce rate of the 20 states who voted for the C Party candidate at least 5 times out of the of last 8 elections (let's call them the C states) is 19 percent lower than the other states (the D states).
Birth to teenagers: The teenage birth rate in the C states is 38 percent lower than in the D states.
Birth to unmarried women: The unmarried women birth rate in the C states is 7 percent lower than in the D states.
Infant mortality: Children born in C states are 24 percent less likely to die before their first birthday than children in D states.
Murder: The murder rate in the C states is 17 percent lower than in the D states.
Rape: The forcible rape rate in the C states is 20 percent lower than in the D states.
Aggravated assault: The aggravated assault rate in the C states is 18 percent lower than in the D states.
Robbery: The robbery rate in the C states is 10 percent higher than in the D states (This is the one exception).
High school dropouts: The dropout rate in the C states is 16 percent lower than in the D states.
College: The college graduation rate in the C states is 16 percent higher than in the D states.
Advantage: Party C
I asked each of my friends to pick the category he or she considers more crucial, and then I showed them the key to the symbols. This is the key to the identity of the two political parties analyzed by Yagil Herzberg:
A - The Democratic Party
B - The Republican Party
C - The Democratic Party
D - The Republican Party
